Welcome back, college football fans, to episode 665 of the GCR which is focused on our 8th most-challenged football conference using our preseason strength of schedule (PS-SOS). After going through the FCS (non-bowl eligible Division I (D1) teams), and well-entrenched in the FBS (bowl-eligible teams). We’ve talked about the Mountain West (11th with a PS-SOS of 6.952), then the MAC (10th at 7.009) and Confrence USA (9th at 7.276).
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Before we get into that, we had a question about Men’s and Women’s Basketball and a type of PS-SOS for them. There are two reasons why we don’t. First, the not so good reason, is there are many more conferences, and we would be posting them on football game days in the early season. Is it doable from that standpoint? Yes. Is it bad to have multiple posts? We hope not, because from November to early January, that will be common. The more impactful reason is that, in order to do the job right, we need the full schedules of all 730ish teams earlier enough to complete the analysis. While schedule changes sometimes occur as late as June/July for football, there are few of them (3 this season). Basketball makes changes up to the beginning of the season (non-conference adds), during in-season tournaments (we have no idea who will play in the second game, etc.), and seemingly willy-nilly as the wind blows (mid-season addition not on the “original” schedule). Not all teams, and usually not the Majors, do this but enough do frequently enough to make a basketball version too volatile too late in the preseason to be consistent as we worked through the conferences, especially with 32 conferences. The math works if the schedules were stable long enough. Maybe we can come to a solution in the future, but not this season.
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But today is not only about football, it’s about the 8th most-challenged conference in D1. As a quick reminder, ANYONE who ranks teams or conferences in any way before games are played are either speculating or using some type of biased algorithm to come up with the ranking. We use the algorithm approach, and the bias is that we use each team’s 2025 Score (a combination of performance and SOS metrics) which is used for the GCR Top 265 (266 this season) overlaid onto this year’s schedule. The bias assumes that each team will exactly duplicate its 2025 season, which they won’t. Non-D1 teams have their own calculation (not included in the GCR, so we had to come up with something), and teams are awarded bonuses for away and neutral site games. The scale gives a value so that each team’s PS-SOS can be seen as the average number of wins each team’s opponents “will” have assuming an all-FBS schedule at all neutral sites.
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Which brings us to number 8, the 14-team Sun Belt Conference (SUN) with a mean PS-SOS of 7.310 and a mean team ranking of 104.0 out of 266. Over the summer, the SUN lost Texas St to the rebuilt Pac 12 and stole LA Tech from Conference USA. The LATC steal was so late in the offseason that for a few weeks, they had two schedules as both conferences were claiming them. I’m sure some cash was involved, but the disagreement was resolved for the Bulldogs and the Sun Belt. In the table below, (4) indicates a Core 4 (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame) challenge, (G) indicates a non-conference game against a Group of 6 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac 12, or UCONN) opponent, (F) indicates a match against an FCS team. There are no neutral site games on the schedule. With no further ado, we are proud to present the 2026 Sun Belt Conference.
| Team Conf Rank | Home Field | 2025 Record (Rank) | 2026 PS SOS (Rank) | Home Games | Away Games | Hardest | Easiest |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1) | Hattiesburg, MS | 7-6 (88) | 7.90 (75) | Alcorn St (F), UCONN (G), Arkansas St, Louisiana, James Madison, South Alabama | Auburn (4), Tulane (G), Troy, ULM, LA Tech, Old Dominion | at Old Dominion (10.79) | Alcorn St (3.19) |
| Ga Southern Eagles (2) | Statesboro, GA | 7-6 (90) | 7.82 (78) | Chrls So (F), Houston (4), James Madison, App St, Marshall, LA Tech | Clemson (4), Jax St (G), Coastal, Old Dominion, Georgia St, Troy | at Old Dominion (10.79) | Chrls So (2.60) |
| South Alabama Jaguars (3) | Mobile, AL | 4-8 (112) | 7.52 (93) | SELA (F), Ohio (G), ULM, LA Tech, Troy, App St | Tulane (G), Kentucky (4), Arkansas St, Marshall, Louisiana, Southern Miss | at Tulane (10.55) | SELA (4.10) |
| Troy Trojans (4) | Troy, AL | 8-6 (82) | 7.41 (97) | Sam Houston (G), Alabama St (F), Southern Miss, ULM, LA Tech, Ga Southern | Missouri (4), Utah St (G), Louisiana, James Madison, South Alabama, Arkansas St | at James Madison (11.44) | Alabama St (4.35) |
| Georgia St Panthers (5) | Atlanta, GA | 1-11 (169) | 7.41 (98) | NC A&T (F), N Illinois (G), Old Dominion, Coastal, Ga Southern, Louisiana | Kennesaw St (G), UCF (4), James Madison, Arkansas St, App St, Marshall | at James Madison (11.44) | NC A&T (1.45) |
| Arkansas St Red Wolves (6) | Jonesboro, AR | 7-6 (98) | 7.37 (100) | West Georgia (F), Kennesaw St (G), South Alabama, Georgia St, ULM, Troy | Memphis (G), TCU (4), Louisiana, Southern Miss, Coastal, LA Tech | at TCU (11.69) | Georgia St (4.06) |
| James Madison Dukes (7) | Harrisonburg, VA | 12-2 (29) | 7.25 (106) | Liberty (G), Wagner (F), Marshall, Georgia St, Troy, Coastal | San Diego St (G), Old Dominion, Ga Southern, App St, Southern Miss, UCONN (G) | at Old Dominion (10.79) | Wagner (2.22) |
| LA Tech Bulldogs (8) | Ruston, LA | 8-5 (66) | 7.23 (108) | Nwestern St (F), Army (G), Louisiana, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, Arkansas St | LSU (4), Baylor (4), ULM, South Alabama, Troy, Ga Southern | at LSU (10.55) | Nwestern St (0.64) |
| Old Dominion Monarchs (9) | Norfolk, VA | 10-3 (38) | 7.23 (109) | Norfolk St (F), East Carolina (G), James Madison, Ga Southern, Marshall, Southern Miss | Virginia Tech (4), Georgia St, App St, LA Tech, Coastal, UCONN (G) | at LA Tech (9.23) | Norfolk St (1.74) |
| App St Mountaineers (10) | Boone, NC | 5-8 (106) | 7.20 (112) | Maine (F), Charlotte (G), Old Dominion, James Madison, Georgia St, ULM | East Carolina (G), NC St (4), Coastal, Ga Southern, Marshall, South Alabama | at NC St (11.02) | Maine (3.37) |
| Marshall Thundering Herd (11) | Huntington, WV | 5-7 (99) | 7.16 (113) | Mid Tenn (G), Gardner Webb (F), Coastal, South Alabama, App St, Georgia St | Penn St (4), Missouri St (G), James Madison, Old Dominion, Ga Southern, ULM | at James Madison (11.44) | Gardner Webb (3.25) |
| Coastal Chanticleers (12) | Conway, SC | 6-7 (104) | 7.11 (116) | Fordham (F), Liberty (G), Ga Southern, App St, Old Dominion, Arkansas St | West Virginia (4), Delaware (G), Marshall, Georgia St, Louisiana, James Madison | at James Madison (11.44) | Fordham (1.54) |
| ULM Warhawks (13) | Monroe, LA | 3-9 (141) | 7.03 (119) | SELA (F), FAU (G), LA Tech, Southern Miss, Louisiana, Marshall | Mississippi St (4), UAB (G), South Alabama, Troy, Arkansas St, App St | at Mississippi St (8.82) | SELA (4.10) |
| Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (14) | Lafayette, LA | 6-7 (102) | 6.69 (132) | Lamar (F), UAB (G), Arkansas St, Troy, South Alabama, Coastal | Southern Cal (4), Charlotte (G), LA Tech, Southern Miss, ULM, Georgia St | at Southern Cal (12.07) | Lamar (3.92) |
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That’s it for today. Tune in Monday for the next in the countdown. Thank you for reading, asking questions, making suggestions, and, especially, for sharing with others. Until next time, JoJo and G.
