G’s Exploration or The Most Changed Conference in Recent History

Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 664 of the GCR as we discuss the 9th most-challenged conference in Division I (D1) football using our preseason strength of schedule (PS-SOS) metric. So far, we talked through the FCS (conferences #25-12), the Mountain West (11th at 6.952), and the MAC (10th at 7.009). As a quick reminder, the PS-SOS takes our 2025 Score metric (a combination of performance and SOS calculations), which is what we use to rank every team, overlaid on each team’s 2026 schedule. Of course, the biggest flaw in this model is each season is different, especially in the age of NIL and super-sized transfer portals. We started creating this countdown and the PS-SOS metric a few years ago for two reasons. One: to see if we could, and two: to create content leading up to the opening kickoffs. We do not have biases built into our model: Indiana (undefeated champions last season) and Chicago St (first year playing football ever) are currently tied for first with the other 264 D1 teams. Everyone has to earn their keep in the GCR, season after season. Our mitigation to the inherent flaw in the PS-SOS metric is that we do base our numbers on the best data that we have while others that we’ve read seem to base their “who plays the toughest schedule in XYZ conference?” on speculation of which teams will have good seasons.

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If we were to have a Top 266 prior to any games being played, the only logical approach would be to use the last x number of season weighted in some way. Some computer rankings not only do that but also use those numbers as a part of their early season rankings. Later, somewhere around the end of September, they announce there is enough data and preseason rankings are no longer used. Maybe that’s better, maybe it isn’t. We have decided since day 1 (back in the “sending an email to friends” early years) that we would not have preseason ranks because last year is irrelevant to this season. The only compromise we’ve ever allowed is the PS-SOS, with open caveats. Intellectual curiosity has led us to this countdown, the addition of Men’s and Women’s basketball, prediction models, improved modeling, and countless other smaller improvements, but ANY preseason poll or calculation is biased. We choose not to engage in bias.

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But today is about the 9th most-difficult conference using our flawed metric, 10-team Conference USA (CUSA) with a mean PS-SOS of 7.276 and a mean rank of 109.0 out of 266 teams. The most tenured conference members are FIU and Mid Tenn St with both joining CUSA in 2013 – just 13 years ago. In 2012, the East Division was won by UCF (now Big 12) and included East Carolina (American), Marshall (Sun Belt), Memphis (American), UAB (American), and Southern Miss (Sun Belt). The West Division led by Tulsa (American) who won the conference title game included SMU (ACC), Rice (American), Houston (Big 12), UTEP (Pac 12) and Tulane (American). The league began in 1995 with Cincinnati (Big 12), Houston, Louisville (ACC), Memphis, Southern Miss, and Tulane. In today’s CUSA, every member, Delaware (2025), FIU (2005), Jacksonville St (2023), Kennesaw St (2024), Liberty (2018), Missouri St (2025), New Mexico St (2018), Sam Houston (2023), and W Kentucky (2009), jumped from the FCS to the FBS this century, except Mid Tenn St who made the jump in 1999. It is possible that the conference has stabilized but it is just as likely that it will continue to be a transition/launching point. With the new look, they took a page from the MAC (see last post) and play mid-week games in October making CUSA games the only football games on TV. It also means that from the second week of October until Thanksgiving week, we can enjoy either college (Tuesday through Saturday) or pro (Sunday, Monday, and the occasional game on Thursday) every single day. Yes, you are correct. It is glorious. In the table below, (4) indicates a challenge against a Core 4 team (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame), (G) indicates a non-conference game against a Group of 6 peer (American, MAC, Mountain West, Pac 12, Sun Belt, or UCONN), and (F) indicates an FCS opponent. There are no neutral site games. With no further ado, we are proud to present the 2026 Conference USA.

Team
Conf Rank
Home Field2025 Record (Rank)2026 PS SOS (Rank)Home GamesAway GamesHardestEasiest
Missouri St Bears (1)Springfield, MO7-6 (97)7.79 (75)Lindenwood (F), Marshall (G), Kennesaw St, Sam Houston, New Mexico St, LibertyTexas A&M (4), SMU (4), W Kentucky, Delaware, FIU, Jax Stat Texas A&M (12.51)Lindenwood (3.26)
Delaware Blue Hens (2)Newark, DE7-6 (91)7.76 (84)Merrimack (F), Coastal (G), Liberty, Missouri St, FIU, Jax StVanderbilt (4), Virginia (4), Mid Tenn, W Kentucky, Kennesaw St, New Mexico Stat Vanderbilt (12.30)Merrimack (2.80)
W Kentucky Hilltoppers (3)Bowling Green, KY9-4 (67)7.73 (85)Mercyhurst (F), Missouri St, Delaware, Jax St, Kennesaw StNevada (G), Georgia (4), Indiana (4), New Mexico St, Sam Houston, Mid Tenn, Libertyat Indiana (15.18)Mercyhurst (3.36)
Sam Houston Bearkats (4)Houston, TX2-10 (159)7.54 (91)Tulsa (G), Nicholls (F), W Kentucky, New Mexico St, Kennesaw St, Mid TennTroy (G), Texas Tech (4), Liberty, Missouri St, Jax St, FIUat Texas Tech (13.98)Nicholls (2.72)
New Mexico St Aggies (5)Las Cruces, NM4-8 (124)7.21 (111)Mercyhurst (F), New Mexico (G), W Kentucky, Jax St, Liberty, DelawareFlorida St (4), Hawaii (G), FIU, Sam Houston, Missouri St, Mid Tennat Florida St (9.50)Mercyhurst (3.36)
Liberty Flames (6)Lynchburg, VA4-8 (105)7.04 (118)Gardner Webb (F), Ball St (G), Sam Houston, FIU, Mid Tenn, W KentuckyJames Madison (G), Coastal (G), Delaware, Kennesaw St, New Mexico St, Missouri Stat James Madison (11.44)Gardner Webb (3.25)
Jax St Gamecocks (7)Jacksonville, AL9-5 (79)6.97 (122)E Kentucky (F), Ga Southern (G), Mid Tenn, FIU, Sam Houston, Missouri StNorth Dakota St (G), Ohio (G), Kennesaw St, New Mexico St, W Kentucky, Delawareat Kennesaw st (9.74)E Kentucky (2.73)
Kennesaw St Owls (8)Kennesaw, GA10-4 (53)6.96 (123)West Georgia (F), Georgia St (G), Jax St, Liberty, Delaware, FIUTennessee (4), Arkansas St (G), Missouri St, Mid Tenn, Sam Houston, W Kentuckyat Tennessee (10.92)Georgia St (4.06)
FIU Panthers (9)Miami, FL7-6 (85)6.91 (125)Buffalo (G), Long Island (F), New Mexico St, Mid Tenn, Missouri St, Sam HoustonSouth Florida (G), FAU (G), Jax St, Liberty, Delaware, Kennesaw Stat South Florida (10.61)Long Island (3.48)
Mid Tenn Blue Raiders (10)Murfreesboro, TN3-9 (175)6.84 (127)Murray St (F), Nevada (G), Delaware, Kennesaw St, W Kentucky, New Mexico StMarshall (G), Jax St, Kansas (4), FIU, Liberty, Sam Houstonat Kansas (9.18)Murray St (1.38)

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That’s it for today. We are now officially three weeks from the first D1 games (all FCS) August 27. We have 8 more conferences to reviews to complete before then. Tune in Saturday (3 weeks before the FBS kickoff) for the next episode. Thank you for reading (it’s why we do this), commenting/ suggesting/ questioning (it’s how we improve) and sharing with others (it’s how we grow). Until Saturday, JoJo and G

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