G’s Exploration or Changes (known and potential) to the 2020 College Football Landscape

Hello oh great and sports-deprived college football fans. It’s been a long 6 or so weeks without sports for all of us. But fear not! I have been getting things ready with the hope of a season as planned. The program is set for next year with the schedule in place. My next post will be about the pre-season strength of schedule (SOS) and who needs to buy the few remaining boxes of tissues in preparation and who can sigh in relief. I’ve added a couple of new things around that measure for this year: a) I have all 257 teams (that’s right we netted a new team), b) not only do we have 1-257 in total, but by month (Aug/Sep, Oct, Nov/Dec – we have to add December to January because of that pesky Army/Navy game), and c) I can give a game by game analysis for your team of choice – but only if you post a message on this blog and ask me. This is called a not-at-all-subtle-perhaps-even-flagrant plug to get more message traffic. Look for that posting in the next couple of days.

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I did just post this year’s conferences by League, Conference, and Division, where applicable. The abbreviations I use (e.g., St for State in every case) are a little different and, for the most part, standardized. I’ve also added the mascots for the teams because some of them are just fun (e.g., Campbell Camels). There have been a few conference adjustments and some additions/deletions from Division I (note: DI is a combination of the 130 FBS schools – these can earn bowl bids – and the 127 FCS schools – these can earn a bid in the 24-team playoff). First, say goodbye to the Jacksonville Dolphins of the Pioneer League (FCS) who decided to end their football program. But we get to welcome the Dixie St Trailblazers out of St George, Utah and the Tarleton Texans out of Stephenville, Texas. They will be joining the FCS as first year schools and will be independent joining Presbyterian who dropped out of the Big South for 2020 and plan to join the Pioneer League in 2021. Other changes in the FCS world are the 2 Independent teams from last year joined conferences: North Dakota joined the Missouri Valley Conference and Merrimack signed on with the Northeast Conference. In the FBS world, there was only one change but it had pretty significant impact. UCONN left the AAC and became the 7th FBS independent school. This, in and of itself, is not very surprising since the Huskies have pretty much never been competitive. What it did was drop the American conference to 11 members – they are working to return to 12 teams, but that may take a while. With 11, they didn’t want to have unbalanced divisions, so they are now without. Their conference championship will follow the Big 12 structure: the top 2 teams play.

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Now for the speculation. I’ve been asked a few times about my thoughts on the likelihood of the upcoming season. Here’s the truth: I don’t know. Neither do the ADs (Athletic Directors), coaches, university presidents, ESPN, ad infinitum. We just don’t know. Here are the questions that come into play. 1) Will universities be open for in-classroom instruction? If not, then there probably won’t be football or any other fall sport. I don’t think schools can get away with “the campus is closed except for athletes.” 2) Will fans be able to come to the games and if so, with how much social distancing? To me, this is simply a money play. Most of the schools we talk about pay for more than just football with ticket and ads sales. Those ads are both tv and at the game. If fans can’t come to the games for whatever reason, there will be a backlash that if unsafe for fans, how is it safe for heavy-breathing, sweaty guys to be in contact? Put those two thoughts together and I think it will be really hard to make it work. BTW, I see the NFL having a similar problem, although with fewer games they can all be on tv. In college when 100+ games may happen on Saturday tv will only be able to show a fraction of them so teams that aren’t top tier will lose out. I just don’t think playing to an empty house is feasible, especially for college. 3) When will the decision be made? College coaches have said that they need a minimum of 8 weeks with the players on campus to get them football ready (and to learn play books etc.). The first games are currently scheduled for August 29 so practice would need to start July 4. That means a decision would need to be made in mid-June. We’re about 6 weeks away. 4) Will all states/schools have the same rules? I can bet we know the answer here: a big no. So, what will we do if some states allow sports/crowds and some don’t?

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So what are our options? I’ve heard a few things and here comes the heavy opinion section – I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments. I think one option is still that the season goes on as planned. If things get better over the next month or so and it’s deemed safe and everybody agrees (schools and states) and the players decide to show up, then yes, we can play our normal schedule as planned. I think that’s a lot of long bets personally. Since school is at least nominally in session, I’ll grade these for likelihood. I’m giving this scenario – the everything goes forward as planned – as a D-.

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I’ve heard the some schools/conferences are talking about a conference-games only scenario. That is interesting and could work. I see two problems with it: first, there are smaller schools (FCS) that rely on that big game at Alabama or somewhere to pay for their facilities and program. That would have to be worked out and could. The bigger problem is Notre Dame. They are an independent (there are others but let’s ignore them for now). Are we saying they don’t play? I rate this scenario an F. It’s a give-up plan and I don’t see it happening. Not to mention, how in the world would anybody know which teams are good. Clemson going 9-0 in the ACC would not be surprising at all, but would it be good enough to be considered over an 8-1 Big 10 or SEC team? Of course the ACC could bounce back from their somewhat abysmal last year and surprise us – but the odds are long there too.

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Similarly, a shortened season is an option. For discussion, let’s say 6 games instead of 12. in this scenario, the season would start in mid-October and whatever games are on the schedule, that’s what you play. Early season games are just wiped out. I could see this version sort of working. Would it be fair? yes. Would it be ideal for all teams? no. But the wide range of SOS difficulty would just be highlighted a little more, and could turn things around for some. We would still have the trouble with smaller schools playing big schools early for money, but that can be worked out. There could be division ties where the teams did not play each other. Some rivalry games will be lost, but by far the majority are later in the year. If this does happen, maybe the expand the bowl season so everyone gets to play at least one more game. There are issues with this plan, but it’s better than the other two by far. I’m giving it a B.

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One I didn’t want to write about is a full cancellation of the season. In this scenario, there are no 2020 football games at all. Period. Hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth. The NCAA would have to give everyone another year of eligibility for one thing, if they want it. It would make the NFL draft much more difficult than it already is. I think this would be the worst-case scenario because of the lost revenue, lost seasons, lost development, lost…just lost. I wish I could give this one an F meaning it won’t happen, but I think it gets a C+. It is very much in the realm of possibility. It probably deserves a B+, but I just can’t make myself do it.

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The most intriguing scenario and the highest rating of B+ goes to postponing the season and making football 2020 a 2021 spring sport. Same schedule, same games (with I’m sure some modifications due to other commitments), as much as possible. Yes, it would compete with March madness, yes it would compete with baseball, softball, and all the other spring sports, but it works. Postponing a full season for even a month makes it really difficult in the north. Teams playing in the snow and really cold weather in late December and January is just not conducive. Yes, it’s fun to see the Dolphins play Buffalo in December or anyone play Green Bay, but it’s not college and would give an unfair advantage to better weather locales. A full shift would make more sense. If I were a betting man, and if you’ve read any of these before, you know I’m not, I would pick one of these in order:

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1. Full shift to Spring
2. Play a “half-” season
3. Cancel the season

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But that’s just me. Let me know your thoughts and your scenarios. Chat with you soon, your college football freak,

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G