Hello college football fans! We are in the middle of July with just a few more weeks before the 2021-22 season kicks off. As with every year, I’ve wondered which teams are facing the most challenging schedules and which are, well, not. Before I talk about the top (and bottom) 10, let me spend a couple of minutes talking about the theory (and how this year is different from every other one).
…..
With constant roster changes (3-4 years at most for key players), there is no really great predictable model. When a good return rate for starters is 50%, there are just too many unknowns. Teams can have big swings in success in just a couple of seasons. The way the GCR handles that, in a normal situation, is we look at last year’s win totals for every team’s opponents. Most teams don’t move more than a couple of wins (big swings can and do happen, but they are the minority). From those win totals I take the location (home, away, or neutral) and league (Power 5, Group of 5, FCS, or lower) into consideration and calculate a score. That score, in and of itself, is not truly meaningful, but can be used for comparative purposes, with a higher score indicating a more difficult schedule. Because 2020 was a pandemic year with a wide variety of games played, including some teams not playing at all, the score using that data is misleading, so I had to reuse 2019.
…..
This year, the mean score for FCS teams is 3.922 with a range of 5.523 (Missouri St) to 2.597 (Delaware St). In comparison, the Group of 5 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and independents not named Notre Dame) has a mean score of 6.371 with a range of 8.521 (Tulsa) to 4.323 (Buffalo). Notice Missouri St (and a number of other FCS schools) plays a more difficult schedule than Buffalo. The Power 5 (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, and Notre Dame) has a mean score of 8.089 with a range of 10.313 (Georgia Tech) to 6.719 (Baylor). Again we see crossover between the G5 and P5 in terms of difficulty. The Yellow Jackets are the only team this year with a score over 10. In fact the second most difficult schedule belongs to Nebraska at 9.667. Sorry Tech fans: it looks like a tough year. Of course having Clemson, Notre Dame, and Georgia, all on the road, on your schedule.
…..
So, starting with the FCS here are the 10 most difficult and 10 easiest schedules by league (parenthetical numbers are the overall out of 258).
…..
| 10 | Villanova (137) |
| 9 | Towson (136) |
| 8 | Portland St (135) |
| 7 | William & Mary (134) |
| 6 | Gardner Webb (133) |
| 5 | Nicholls (131) |
| 3T | McNeese (128) |
| 3T | Elon (128) |
| 2 | Charleston Southern (127) |
| 1 | Missouri St (120) |
…..
| 128 | Delaware St (258) |
| 127 | Georgetown (257) |
| 126 | Marist (256) |
| 125 | Tarleton (255) |
| 124 | Bryant (254) |
| 123 | Sacred Heart (253) |
| 122 | Alabama A&M (252) |
| 121 | Dartmouth (251) |
| 120 | Dayton (250) |
| 119 | Alcorn St (249) |
…..
And now for the Group of 5:
…..
| 10 | C Michigan (68) |
| 9 | Akron (67) |
| 8 | Colorado St (60) |
| 7 | East Carolina (56) |
| 5T | Cincinnati (53) |
| 5T | Central Florida (53) |
| 4 | Navy (35) |
| 3 | ULM (34) |
| 2 | BYU (23) |
| 1 | Tulsa (21) |
…..
| 65 | Buffalo (169) |
| 64 | LA Tech (143) |
| 63 | Liberty (141) |
| 62 | Hawaii (132) |
| 61 | Toledo (130) |
| 60 | UMASS (126) |
| 58T | Rice (124) |
| 58T | Southern Miss (124) |
| 57 | Temple (123) |
| 56 | Coastal Carolina (122) |
…..
And finally the Power 5:
…..
| 10T | Florida St and Penn St (10T) |
| 9 | Maryland (9) |
| 8 | Stanford (8) |
| 7 | Indiana (7) |
| 6 | Colorado (6) |
| 5 | UCLA (5) |
| 4 | Arkansas (4) |
| 3 | Purdue (3) |
| 2 | Nebraska (2) |
| 1 | Georgia Tech (1) |
…..
| 65 | Baylor (82) |
| 64 | Arizona St (81) |
| 63 | Vanderbilt (78) |
| 62 | Virginia Tech (76) |
| 61 | Clemson (74) |
| 60 | Texas A&M (71) |
| 59 | Kansas St (69) |
| 58 | Pittsburgh (66) |
| 57 | Tennessee (65) |
| 56 | Boston College (64) |
…..
That’s it for today. In the next installments, I’ll do some SOS analysis by conference. I know it’s been a long time since I’ve posted regularly, but please comment, ask questions, and most importantly, share with others.
…..
G
