G’s Expectation or How to Stay Entertained This Weekend

Greetings and welcome to another episode of What to Watch and Why. Hmm, once I figure out some more of this blog thing, maybe I could do some videos too – other than people having to look at my face and hear my voice, it might be a good idea – what could go wrong? hmm. Oh, well, that’s for another day. For now, there’s just typing and reading, but who knows?

There are some really important games this week including seven, yes, 7 games between top 50 GCR teams. As a reminder, I will not reference AP ranks in these posts unless it’s a comparison or a blog rant or an analysis on the foibles of human polls or for some other semi-nefarious purpose. The great news is that not all of the games are on at the same time which will allow you, oh faithful readers, to watch or listen or otherwise follow games for over 24 hours (except over night – I mean, I don’t expect that much sacrifice for college football – or do I?) Before we start this, a quick GCR tutorial on how I predict games. First, it’s all based on the data and formulae that create the ranking in the first place. Regressive analysis gave me a predictive formula that is pretty decent. I don’t give a point spread, at least most of the time, but instead give a probability of a win. It’s not exactly this, but it’s kind of like running a simulation a bunch of times and saying team A beat team B 62.5% of the time. That’s the number I provide. As my usual caveat goes, please do not place bets based on this analysis – but if you win, I’ll take my cut (just kidding for you legal folks out their – the disclaimer is don’t use the analysis for betting – geez). I do keep track and the numbers play out roughly right. If I pick a set of teams that are all in the 60% win range, I’m right about 60% of the time as the math would suggest. If a set of teams is in the 80% win range, I’m right about 80% of the time – plus or minus and all that statistical stuff.

The fun starts with a matchup of giant-killer Mountain West foes. Air Force (28) will visit the blue confines of Boise State (33) Friday night at 8:00 (all times Eastern). Both teams are undefeated with the Falcons 2-0 with wins over Colgate (213) and Pac-12 member Colorado (77) while the Broncos have won all 3 of their games: ACC’s Florida State (117), Marshall (58), and Portland State (152). Despite this being the first conference game in the Mountain West, this game may determine the winner of the Mountain division. I have Boise State singing the blues as Air Force wins 56.6% of the time.

After a good night’s rest, and day jobs for most of us, we rise Saturday to the best noon game in the country and one with serious implications: Michigan (50) with wins over Middle Tennessee State (170) and Army (78) will travel to play Wisconsin (2) who has outscored South Florida (132) and Central Michigan (67) 110-0. This cross-divisional game is the first conference game for both and will tell us if the Army game (won in OT) was a hiccup for Michigan and whether Wisconsin is for real. While there are a lot of games to play in the Big 10 (they play 9 conference games each year), this one will come back to haunt one of them. I’ve got the Badgers at 69.0%. If they dominate this game, they could move to the number 1 spot since Ohio State (1) is playing Miami of Ohio (116) and could take an SOS hit.

There are two 3:30 games that are between top 50 teams. The first may be a bit of a surprise: SMU (31) is visiting TCU (14) in the alphabet bowl. The Mustangs have started strong with wins over Arkansas State (86), North Texas (106) and Texas State (202) while the Horned Frogs beat up on Arkansas-Pine Bluff (114) and Purdue (171). Neither team has really been tested and this non-conference game is a big one getting ready for conference play. I have TCU winning, but at a relatively innocuous 59.7% rate. Vegas thinks there’s something to this game too with the spread of just 9.5. This one should at least be tracked on line – it could have a big impact on the Big 12’s perception of strength if SMU pulls the upset.

In an SEC West battle – always fun and usually important to some degree – Auburn (8) will face the 12th Man at Texas A&M (34). The Aggies beat Texas State (202) and Lamar (130) while losing to Clemson (4) by 14. The Tigers or War Eagle or whatever they are at that particular moment took out Oregon (24), who is the only top 25 team with a loss, then Tulane (48) before stomping Kent State (87). The GCR always takes into consideration a certain home field advantage and is giving Auburn a shot at starting 4-0 with a 57.1% probability.

An intriguing game between two FCS top 50 teams will start at 6:00. Villanova (41) and Towson (30) will fight for CAA supremacy. I don’t even know if this game will be on TV for most of us, but it will be the closest of all of the games of the week. Both teams are 3-0 with the Wildcats (‘Nova) tackling Colgate (213), Lehigh (218) and Bucknell (215) all of the Patriot Conference. The Tigers took out The Citadel (169) – yes, the ones that beat Georgia Tech (147) -, NC Central (222), and Maine (160). As the only undefeated teams in the Colonial, the winner could be setting themselves up for an FCS playoff spot. At a measly 52.2% Towson wins out.

Around the time those games finish up (assuming no overtime, which, apparently, there’s some kind of TV contract for a certain number each week), at 7:30, we can flip back to the Big 12 in a very interesting matchup. The Cowboys of Oklahoma State (7) who are 3-0 besting Oregon State (127), McNeese State (85), and Tulsa (137) will travel down to Austin to face Texas (47). The Longhorns beat Louisiana Tech (90) and Rice (216) but lost to LSU (11). Since this is the first conference game and Oklahoma (15) is idle, the winner of this game gets a huge leg up. Texas is favored by 5.5, but I’m calling the weekly upset with Oklahoma State winning 61.9% of the time.

If that isn’t enough to keep your attention we go to a playoff impacting game (at least it would have been last year and both teams have high aspirations). With the kickoff at 8:00, the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame (10) will invade the Dawg House and Dooley Field. Georgia (12) is favored by 14 and we will get to that in a moment. On the field so far, the Bulldogs beat winless Vanderbilt (247), FCS opponent Murray State (149) of the Ohio Valley Conference, and the Sun Belt’s Arkansas State (86). Those teams are a combined 2-6. To say they haven’t been tested yet, especially for a team the pundits are saying will vie for the SEC title, is as much of an understatement as I’ve ever heard. The first real test of a season is always difficult and that what they are facing. Notre Dame beat Louisville (65) and New Mexico (142), and while they haven’t been pushed that hard either, those 2 opponents are 3-2 with both of the losses coming via ND. Last year, in the pre-blog email version of all of this, I made a passionate argument about why Georgia belonged in the playoff – their SOS, their general dominance, etc. Notre Dame was selected instead and lost by 27 to eventual (and dominant) champion Clemson. The coincidence that this game is being played this year is beautiful. All of that to say Notre Dame will win the argument this year by a very slim 54.0%.

Two other quick things: the Power 5 has just 2 winless teams and I predict they will stay that way. UCLA (208) is a 93.4% loser to Washington State (21) and Vandy (247) is a 96.2% loser to LSU (11). The other is the Ivy League is joining the party this week so all 256 will have played at least one game come Sunday (barring hurricanes in the Northeast).

That’s it – happy watching – we’ll see what happens. The updated ranking will be posted Sunday (I try to get it done by 1:00) and analysis on what it means will be out Sunday night. As always, comments are encouraged. Please subscribe and share with friends so that we can get really good discussions happening!!

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