G’s Evaluation or A New Top 266!

Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 736 or Week 10’s Division I GCR Ranking. Before we get into that, congratulations to the newest members of the bowl-eligibility club (in order of appearance), Buffalo, FAU, Illinois, Clemson, Baylor, Oklahoma St, South Carolina, Oregon, Wisconsin, Louisville, Louisiana, and Wyoming – congratulations on the 6th win of the season. We now have 54 of the 82 bowl spots spoken for (in some manner). Unfortunately, we need to add Rutgers, Georgia Tech, and Temple to the, now, 14 teams with 7 or more losses, thus missing postseason play. November is elimination month and we saw some of that yesterday.

…..

This season, as our dear readers know, has been attacked by a serial upsetter, (yes, we just coined that phrase) who has done little good for consistency. S/he has also wreaked havoc on the GCR’s ability to predict accurately. It’s to the point that the eyeball test tells us there will be surprises, but determining which games is, well, difficult. In the table below, each block has two sets of numbers with the upper being the GCR’s predictions straight up and the lower being against the Vegas spread. Our algorithm failed to meet expectations again, but it’s not just us. Vegas missed picking the winner 14 out of 52 times (730) which is lower than expectations for them as well.

WeekC4/C4C4/G6C4/FCSG6/G6G6/FCSFCS/FCSTotal
0———————
1———0-2 (000)
0-2 (000)
3-0 (1000)
2-1 (667)
15-8 (652)
12-9 (571)
18-10 (643) 14-12 (538)
29-5 (643)
6-8 (429)
16-1 (941) 11-6 (647)8-8 (500)
9-7 (563)
15-1 (938)
10-6 (625)
14-7 (667)
8-12 (400)
21-12 (636)
12-21 (364)
83-34 (709) 56-60 (483)
313-7 (650)
10-10 (500)
18-1 (947) 9-10 (474)9-0 (1000)
6-3 (667)
8-10 (444)
8-10 (444)
8-1 (889)
3-6 (333)
23-13 (639)
17-14 (548)
79-32 (712) 53-53 (500)
413-10 (565) 17-6 (739)7-2 (778)
6-3 (667)
3-0 (1000)
3-0 (1000)
16-5 (762)
13-8 (619)
8-1 (889)
5-4 (556)
35-13 (729)
30-18 (625)
82-31 (726) 74-39 (655)
517-10 (630) 16-11 (593)2-0 (1000) 2-1 (667)1-0 (1000)
0-1 (000)
19-7 (731)
18-8 (692)
2-0 (1000)
2-0 (1000)
33-20 (623)
28-20 (583)
74-37 (667) 66-41 (617)
617-9 (654)
14-12 (538)
1-1 (500)
0-2 (000)
—18-13 (581) 15-15 (500) —28-18 (609)
22-22 (500)
64-41 (610) 51-51 (500)
713-15 (464)
9-19 (321)
—3-0 (1000)
0-2 (000)
22-9 (710)
16-15 (516)
—32-21 (604)
13-13 (500)
70-45 (609) 38-49 (437)
815-12 (556) 14-13 (519) — —19-9 (679)
17-12 (586)
—36-19 (655)
16-18 (471)
70-40 (636) 47-43 (522)
920-8 (714)
11-17 (393)
2-0 (1000) 1-1 (500) —19-7 (731)
12-14 (462)
—42-15 (737)
14-14 (500)
83-30 (735) 38-46 (452)
1017-13 (567) 15-15 (500)1-0 (1000) 0-1 (000)1-0 (1000)
1-0 (1000)
20-11 (645) 12-19 (387) —38-24 (613)
19-11 (633)
77-48 (616) 47-46 (505)
Total134-89 (601) 112-111 (502)47-5 (904) 29-24 (547)25-8 (758) 19-13 (594)156-74 (678) 121-109 (526)35-9 (795) 20-23 (465)303-163 (650) 183-160 (534)700-348 (668) 484-440 (524)

…..

But today (or at least this post today) is about the GCR rankings. The season has been weird, to say the least, and one impact of that strangeness (thank you serial upsetter) is our expected strength of schedule (SOS), which is one of the two pieces in the Score, is…wonky. 2-loss teams have often played significantly more difficult schedules than 1-loss teams (see Alabama compared to Georgia). That said, even though Miami FL (8-1/1) lost at Notre Dame (8-1/2) 31-24 (with a controversial, though irrelevant to the GCR, TD called back that would have tied the game), the math shows the Hurricanes still have the best overall resume (combination of SOS and performance) in college football. Remember, the GCR has no concept of past or future. Every game that’s been played so far this year happens “now”. No game in the future will ever happen (until it happens “now”). Murray St retained the last spot for another week. The complete Top 266 is below.

…..

That’s it for this episode. Tune in soon for the basketball only version of G’s Expectation. Until then, thank you for reading, commenting, and sharing with others, JoJo and G.

RankTeamConfWinLossPFPAScoreRPICelsius
1Miami FLACC8145.019.216.474100.00
2Notre DameND8139.314.615.85397.41
3UCLAB109033.614.115.71196.84
4AlabamaSEC7237.420.315.52596.05
5GeorgiaSEC8141.114.015.28795.08
6UtahB129037.716.315.04294.10
7Wake ForestACC8143.315.913.821089.04
8HoustonB127235.421.313.141486.24
9Ohio StB106335.718.313.121786.15
10IndianaB108132.412.413.111186.12
11Texas TechB128137.624.112.94885.39
12TexasSEC7231.117.412.83684.96
13TennesseeSEC7232.415.112.781384.76
14LibertyUSA8133.313.612.717084.46
15BYUB127231.019.812.581283.92
16ArizonaB127234.219.912.582183.90
17Boise StPAC8139.025.212.285182.68
18LSUSEC6337.117.712.102081.95
19OregonB106334.122.112.051881.74
20New MexicoMWC8134.610.912.036381.67
21Oklahoma StB126343.927.211.903381.12
22DukeACC7233.013.011.872480.99
23IowaB107227.812.211.761980.54
24LouisvilleACC6340.825.911.492979.41
25WisconsinB106324.416.311.482379.39
26MississippiSEC6333.826.011.321578.71
27SMUACC7237.022.911.042677.55
28James MadisonSUN8240.619.311.027277.47
29Southern CalB107232.424.211.021677.46
30North Dakota StMWC7228.111.910.977377.27
31South CarolinaSEC6334.723.410.822276.67
32BaylorB126331.917.010.783676.49
33KentuckySEC7229.925.810.68976.09
34NorthwesternB106331.019.310.443175.08
35MemphisAAC7237.623.610.157173.87
36MissouriSEC6330.220.110.133473.80
37PittsburghACC6331.919.89.903572.85
38LA TechSUN7233.620.49.816772.47
39Virginia TechACC6334.223.99.684271.93
40North TexasAAC7244.730.99.676971.88
41NebraskaB105430.216.69.534771.34
42North CarolinaACC5427.122.89.413870.84
43OklahomaSEC5422.119.29.372570.68
44ClemsonACC6322.720.79.142769.73
45Penn StB105428.919.39.064369.36
46CincinnatiB125433.029.48.963768.96
47Jax StUSA7229.119.28.927768.81
48IllinoisB106328.423.08.583267.39
49UTSAAAC7233.029.88.516467.10
50OhioMAC7229.421.78.488066.99
51Air ForceMWC7228.721.48.257566.03
52FloridaSEC5432.427.68.223065.93
53ToledoMAC7235.424.48.207865.84
54LouisianaSUN6329.921.88.198465.81
55AuburnSEC5424.326.38.022865.08
56South FloridaAAC6325.915.17.979264.89
57Texas StPAC5438.630.87.897964.54
58Fresno StPAC5426.820.67.879064.47
59Florida StACC4530.728.37.865064.44
60Texas A&MSEC4526.118.77.865364.43
61Iowa StB124529.228.97.814664.21
62Montana StSKY9140.519.67.7614263.99
63WashingtonB105426.321.97.754963.98
64MichiganB105419.616.27.723963.83
65UCFB125430.126.07.714163.79
66W MichiganMAC6326.219.27.698163.73
67TCUB124523.815.87.685763.69
68Mississippi StSEC4526.227.87.494062.89
69TulsaAAC5433.122.87.449762.68
70VirginiaACC4525.923.17.395662.47
71MinnesotaB105424.722.07.314462.17
72Oregon StPAC5438.026.97.308762.10
73FAUAAC6340.235.07.298362.09
74West VirginiaB125437.234.67.264561.95
75Arizona StB125428.427.37.184861.61
76Michigan StB103619.323.67.135561.41
77Ga SouthernSUN5426.619.77.078261.16
78TarletonUAC10040.323.27.0214360.97
79UNLVMWC5426.125.77.018860.90
80WyomingMWC6321.921.76.969160.69
81Georgia StSUN5434.426.26.8510660.27
82Boston CollegeACC4521.927.06.566059.04
83ArmyAAC5432.225.36.559359.02
84BuffaloMAC6323.926.06.468658.65
85Steph F AustinSLAN9139.616.66.1615957.42
86PurdueB103629.432.36.016156.80
87StanfordACC4520.337.35.955256.52
88SyracuseACC4529.325.45.935856.45
89Utah StPAC4516.920.65.919656.38
90C MichiganMAC4519.823.85.8910256.28
91East CarolinaAAC5423.623.35.769455.77
92UMASSMAC5427.022.15.6511855.28
93UABAAC5421.823.85.589955.00
94KansasB123629.424.85.577454.95
95TN TechSoCon9135.620.35.5117154.74
96HarvardIVY7127.812.65.5016954.69
97FIUUSA4519.320.35.4511154.46
98VanderbiltSEC4523.029.45.315453.90
99LehighPAT8232.218.05.2119353.47
100South AlabamaSUN4532.432.25.1510453.24
101Miami OHMAC5427.426.75.139553.15
102South Dakota StMFC8236.916.25.0514052.82
103NevadaMWC3620.823.64.9911452.59
104ArkansasSEC3620.027.44.956252.40
105Kansas StB124531.326.84.916852.25
106ColoradoB123619.828.34.906552.20
107NC StACC4528.927.64.885952.11
108San Jose StMWC5520.922.04.8110851.81
109MarshallSUN5422.331.94.6810051.29
110Idaho StSKY6432.722.14.6118851.01
111Youngstown StMFC8240.624.84.5713950.83
112UCONNIND4532.926.74.4710950.43
113DelawareUSA4530.329.14.4611350.40
114App StSUN5426.324.44.3010349.71
115NavyAAC3629.230.44.2511249.51
116Mid TennUSA5426.931.04.2210549.41
117San Diego StPAC4526.434.34.1910149.26
118Arkansas StSUN4527.426.34.1211648.98
119LamarSLAN8234.323.14.1214648.97
120Austin PeayUAC8236.019.94.0915048.86
121MarylandB103627.731.34.047648.63
122South DakotaMFC7336.024.94.0314548.62
123CaliforniaACC3621.931.63.816647.68
124TroySUN4522.326.23.7911047.61
125SC StMEAC8241.317.93.6919547.22
126PrincetonIVY6220.515.03.5618546.65
127Illinois StMFC7333.719.33.5318346.53
128ButlerPFL8233.419.63.4622946.26
129TulaneAAC4521.129.23.409846.00
130DaytonPFL8133.221.63.3522745.79
131MontanaSKY7340.128.13.2516645.39
132ChattanoogaSoCon6421.213.03.2223645.25
133AlbanyCAA6426.621.93.1717445.05
134W KentuckyUSA3623.633.33.1612245.00
135Kennesaw StUSA3625.127.03.1112344.82
136HawaiiMWC3620.323.33.1011944.75
137CampbellCAA8234.627.93.0614444.62
138E MichiganMAC4619.926.62.9911544.32
139Alabama A&MSWAC7336.221.92.9521644.16
140N ArizonaSKY8232.527.82.9514144.14
141CoastalSUN3624.724.72.9112443.97
142North DakotaMFC7435.725.42.8614843.78
143MercerSoCon8228.716.32.8015543.54
144MonmouthCAA8230.527.12.6014942.70
145RutgersB102725.832.42.568942.54
146Missouri StUSA3623.930.02.5512742.49
147Ball StMAC3622.934.82.5512142.48
148BrownIVY5321.616.82.5222442.37
149Jackson StSWAC7235.920.32.4821942.19
150Kent StMAC3614.330.62.4711742.17
151St ThomasPFL7334.426.52.2515141.27
152Georgia TechACC2723.932.21.988540.13
153C ConnecticutNEC6335.729.61.9316039.95
154Incarnate WordSLAN6438.525.61.9217639.91
155ColgatePAT5520.115.81.9019639.81
156Bowling GreenMAC2717.829.01.8612839.66
157Old DominionSUN3716.825.81.8512039.59
158YaleIVY4427.824.31.7824239.29
159DartmouthIVY4421.520.91.5522838.37
160New Mexico StUSA3620.725.81.3512637.53
161Colorado StPAC3635.844.81.2910737.29
162Southern MissSUN3626.433.61.1412536.65
163CornellIVY3527.626.41.0925036.47
164VillanovaPAT6427.424.81.0316336.23
165Alabama StSWAC5426.920.80.9820736.00
166E Tenn StSoCon6431.923.60.9717035.95
167TempleAAC2724.928.30.9413335.83
168W IllinoisBSOV6436.225.90.8416435.41
169WoffordSoCon5522.722.10.7922335.23
170RiceAAC1821.234.00.7912935.20
171BryantCAA6420.922.20.7717935.13
172IdahoSKY5533.934.80.7214734.94
173Weber StSKY6436.132.50.7017734.84
174ValparaisoPFL4526.222.70.6725834.74
175Ark Pine BluffSWAC6336.229.90.6415434.61
176North AlabamaUAC6423.321.50.5517334.21
177MaristPFL5524.922.60.5225734.13
178Gardner WebbBSOV3721.222.40.5118934.06
179San DiegoPFL5531.335.50.4724933.90
180Stony BrookCAA5532.932.30.4620933.86
181UC DavisSKY6429.430.30.4616833.85
182SEMOBSOV6423.823.70.3317533.33
183PennIVY4417.919.90.3124333.22
184Sam HoustonUSA1817.627.60.2313732.92
185Rhode IslandCAA5523.124.10.2123432.84
186Alcorn StSWAC6442.533.30.1821232.69
187West FloridaUAC4423.822.80.1724132.68
188Abilene ChrUAC5526.124.2-0.1615231.32
189ElonCAA5522.117.5-0.3023030.73
190S UtahSKY4631.232.3-0.3120830.67
191NC CentralMEAC5525.525.1-0.3320030.59
192S IllinoisMFC5524.025.7-0.3617230.46
193ULMSUN2720.134.8-0.3913230.35
194Holy CrossPAT5523.526.8-0.4121030.26
195AkronMAC1819.132.2-0.4413130.16
196W CarolinaSoCon5529.229.7-0.5316729.79
197LindenwoodBSOV5424.623.4-0.5418429.73
198Rio GrandeSLAN5624.226.3-0.5822529.55
199DuquesneNEC4522.724.9-0.6117829.42
200Washington StPAC1819.027.4-0.6413029.31
201SELASLAN4624.628.8-0.6920329.10
202Robert MorrisNEC5522.525.0-0.6924829.09
203Prairie ViewSWAC5525.927.5-0.7218229.00
204RichmondPAT6418.125.8-0.7418128.90
205CharlotteAAC1819.738.3-0.8413528.47
206SouthernSWAC5527.029.8-0.8916528.28
207N IowaMFC4525.728.9-0.9815827.93
208Sacred HeartCAA4523.727.1-1.0023927.85
209Sacramento StMAC2817.029.3-1.0113627.80
210PresbyterianPFL4525.337.2-1.0125927.79
211SamfordSoCon4619.022.9-1.0822227.51
212DrakePFL3725.834.9-1.1026127.41
213N ColoradoSKY3721.926.8-1.1924427.03
214Delaware StMEAC6423.625.5-1.3419126.42
215GeorgetownPAT3520.826.1-1.3925426.22
216N IllinoisMWC0916.636.8-1.4313826.07
217NC A&TCAA4619.226.7-1.5423725.61
218FurmanSoCon3717.121.1-1.5620625.52
219LafayettePAT4522.929.4-1.6023325.35
220McNeeseSLAN5521.024.1-1.6118025.32
221UTEPMWC1814.134.3-1.8113424.47
222BethuneSWAC5526.133.3-1.8819424.19
223ColumbiaIVY4420.330.3-1.9024724.11
224StonehillNEC4617.723.4-1.9619223.86
225E KentuckyUAC3720.131.3-2.0422123.54
226East TexasSLAN3718.827.9-2.0524523.48
227Morgan StMEAC5524.629.1-2.1118623.27
228DavidsonPFL4623.134.9-2.2226322.80
229Norfolk StMEAC4631.525.1-2.2526222.65
230Chrls SoBSOV4623.222.8-2.4515321.85
231New HavenNEC3715.328.3-2.4825221.72
232C ArkansasUAC3724.527.4-2.5223221.56
233E IllinoisBSOV3720.231.3-2.5621121.40
234Cal PolySKY4724.434.7-2.6324021.09
235GramblingSWAC4534.337.0-2.6820420.89
236Houston ChrSLAN4623.726.0-2.6818720.89
237UT MartinBSOV4622.531.9-2.7915620.45
238Morehead StPFL2827.240.5-2.9026519.97
239TowsonCAA2826.733.1-3.4519917.73
240Chicago StFCSIND2730.636.3-3.4726417.61
241MerrimackFCSIND4616.232.1-3.6016117.11
242HowardMEAC4619.130.8-3.6415716.92
243FordhamPAT3718.129.5-3.6720116.79
244TX SouthernSWAC3625.339.4-3.6821416.76
245New HampshireCAA3719.832.0-3.8022016.27
246E WashingtonSKY2828.040.9-3.8821815.95
247Indiana StMFC2824.736.0-3.9023815.87
248William & MaryPAT3718.334.4-3.9521515.65
249StetsonPFL1923.442.2-4.0026615.44
250TN StBSOV2815.431.1-4.1121314.97
251Long IslandNEC3714.125.0-4.2619814.35
252Florida A&MSWAC2819.434.9-4.4521713.58
253BucknellPAT1911.827.8-4.6425112.82
254MS ValleySWAC3716.636.3-4.6825512.62
255MaineCAA1813.327.9-4.8022612.13
256CitadelSoCon2818.132.2-4.9523111.51
257Utah TechSKY1919.138.4-5.0123511.28
258NichollsSLAN4616.436.3-5.452059.44
259Portland StSKY2821.244.1-6.081626.84
260MercyhurstNEC1922.140.1-6.112026.71
261WagnerNEC2815.235.7-6.121906.70
262Nwestern StSLAN01018.147.6-6.132606.63
263West GeorgiaUAC1914.336.2-7.162462.39
264VMISoCon0108.842.0-7.252562.03
265HamptonCAA1915.535.8-7.262531.99
266Murray StMFC1916.743.1-7.741970.00

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