Welcome back, college football fans, to episode 679 or the games of Day 4 of the season. It’s Thursday, and thanks to a really good friend, Carl L., G will be going to a football game at Georgia Tech for the first time tonight! They will be hosting Colorado (Carl’s home) and will be one of 14 games on the slate today. It’s a red-letter day for the GCR as we have our first predictions of the season with two FCS games in which both teams played last week.
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As a reminder, the GCR has no inherent bias (example: we do not assume Ohio St or Texas or Indiana or fill in the blank) will be good because they were good last year or most years. Every team begins the season with a record of 0-0 and a Score (made of up performance and strength of schedule metrics) of 0.000 – all tied for first (or last, if you prefer). Because of the Week 0 games (see next paragraph), any team that has yet to play a game is 0-0/101. Because of that, we have no data to predict games. For example, Georgia (0-0/101) is hosting TN St (0-1/68). Going by Score or Rank, TNST would get the nod because GEO is 0.000/101. Going by history or the huge Vegas spread (see this Saturday’s Expectation for the final number), the Bulldogs should win. Any neutral site games between 0-0/101 teams would show as 50/50. The home team in 0-0/101 games will always show a 53% chance to win because of the imbedded home field advantage. We try not to make assumptions at the GCR, so we just avoid any predictions involving either a team with no record or a game involving a non-division I (non-D1) team. There are people, we think, that assume we review every game and “decide” who should win/cover, but the algorithm does that. We support and report that algorithm once both teams have played at least one game – even when we believe in our football hearts that it is incorrect. It’s the only way to get meaningful accuracy (% correct) numbers that help us upgrade the math for next season. That said, September typically has lower accuracy (less data) than November or the bowl season. Overall, the last couple of years, we were in the upper 50%s when predicting against the Vegas spread and in the mid 70%s when just predicting the winner. We do not gamble on sports: we just provide the predictions for entertainment purposes. If you do gamble, please do so wisely and safely.
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Historically there were just a handful of Week 0 games: all of them FBS (bowl-eligible) teams. To play a game prior to opening weekend (which starts today), one of two criteria had to be met. 1) any team playing at Hawaii (including Hawaii) or 2) any team playing an international game (such as North Carolina/TCU last weekend). The practical purpose of Week 0 is to allow those teams with “travel burdens” to create an extra bye week for player rest. This season, the FCS, most of which are now playing a 12-game season but have rivalry week the week before the FBS teams, played a ton of games in Week 0. That was to create a bye week – otherwise, it would be 12 games in 12 weeks. We’ve seen that the NCAA is planning to move opening week back to what is now Week 0 because pretty much every team in the ACC, Big 12, and Big Ten have cross-country games during the season, creating an extra bye week for everyone. Will that create a new “Week 0” in mid-August? It’s not the plan, but anything can happen in college football.
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One more important piece of news: LSU signed a player who had a contract with a pro team. Courts, for some stupid reason, have ruled that the practice is legal (how?). The SEC and some of LSU’s opponents (notably Clemson) have pushed back legally and rhetorically. The conference has proposed sanctions for any member team including a 6-game suspension for the head coach as well as excluding the member from conference play until the matter is resolved. Clemson has threatened to cancel Saturday’s game if the ex-NFLer is suited up. It wouldn’t be Divison I football if there was no controversy. We will keep up with this story and let you know the final decisions, if any.
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But today is the most wonderful week of the season with games tonight, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday! Every team (except maybe those who lost last weekend) has high hopes for 2026 with goals ranging from the National Championship, or a Playoff appearance, or a bowl game, or just a winning record in the conference, or maybe just more wins that last season. Many will fail to reach those goals, true, but today there is still hope. We think that’s why this week is just about perfect, despite the record heat in most of the country. As of right now, every FBS team is eligible for the 12-team playoff. Every FCS team (except the MEAC/SWAC who are in the mix for the Celebration Bowl) is eligible for the 24-team playoff. Hope abounds. Coaching hot seat speculation is rampant. Champion guessing is at a season high in terms of number of teams considered. One week won’t eliminate any team from the possibility but a loss makes the season harder. That’s what’s great about competitive sports. We can support our favorite teams, but there’s a winner and a loser for all of the ~1500 games before the titles are awarded. Each game is 50/50 from that perspective. Each game has an impact on the overall season. Every game counts.
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In the table below, today’s 14 games are in time order – all times Eastern and p.m. unless otherwise stated. The teams in the second column (and the conferences in the third column) are listed as Away at Home (Away/Home). There are no conference games today and no neutral site matchups. The Vegas column shows the sportsbook’s expected winner and the margin of that victory. For example, they think Rutgers will beat UMASS by 29.5 points. The GCR column shows the team our algorithm calculated should win (assuming both teams have played at least one game). The Cover column shows the team our algorithm calculated should “beat” the spread. For example, Vegas has S Illinois winning by 24.5 and the GCR calculated they will win by at least that amount. Lastly, for convenience of our readers, we’ve posted where you can watch the game. With no further ado, the games of Day 4:
| Time (ET) | Games of September 3rd | Conference | Vegas | GCR | Cover | TV |
| 6:00 | UMASS (0-0/101) at Rutgers (0-0/101) | MAC/B10 | RUTG -29.5 | — | — | Big 10 Network |
| 6:00 | KY Chr (N/A) at Morehead St (0-1/96) | NA/PFL | NL | — | — | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | West Georgia (0-1/260) at Kennesaw St (0-0/101) | UAC/USA | KNST -22.5 | — | — | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Albany (1-0/43) at Buffalo (0-0/101) | CAA/MAC | BUFF -18.5 | — | — | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Merrimack (0-1/265) at Delaware (0-0/101) | FCSIND/USA | DEL -29.5 | — | — | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Akron (0-0/101) at Wake Forest (0-0/101) | MAC/ACC | WF -24.5 | — | — | ACC Network |
| 7:00 | Bethune (0-0/101) at UCF (0-0/101) | SWAC/B12 | UCF -42.5 | — | — | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | S Illinois (0-1/64) at Samford (0-1/239) | MFC/SoCon | SILL -24.5 | SILL | SILL | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Lindenwood (1-0/61) at Stony Brook (0-1/85) | BSOV/CAA | SB -4.0 | SB | LIN | FloFootball |
| 8:00 | Colorado (0-0/101) at Georgia Tech (0-0/101) | B12/ACC | GT -6.5 | — | — | ESPN |
| 8:00 | E Illinois (1-0/25) at Minnesota (0-0/101) | BSOV/B10 | MINN -42.5 | — | — | Peacock |
| 8:00 | Ark Pine Bluff (1-0/82) at Missouri (0-0/101) | SWAC/SEC | MIZZ -54.5 | — | — | SEC Network |
| 9:00 | Idaho (0-1/66) at Utah (0-0/101) | SKY/B12 | UTAH -35.5 | — | — | ESPNU |
| 9:00 | UAB (0-0/101) at Illinois (0-0/101) | AAC/B10 | ILL -27.5 | — | — | Big 10 Network |
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for the 9 games for Day 5. Thank you for reading (it’s why we do this), commenting/suggesting (it’s how we get better), and sharing with others (it’s how we grow). Have a great night of football and we will see you tomorrow, JoJo and G.
