I hope all of you great fans enjoyed your Sunday. I have to say mine has been very busy, but it is the season for that I guess. I mean, Rivalry Week is almost here!!!! Short of the bowl games, I think the final week of the regular season is the most exciting. I can’t wait. It all start Tuesday night when Ohio (57) travels to Akron (256/139), yes, the worst Division I team and ends with Army (110/97) heading all the way to Hawaii (55) to take on the Rainbow Warriors that starts at 12:30 in the morning Sunday, Eastern time.
Before we get too carried away, let’s talk about our FCS friends. They, pretty much, finished up the regular season this weekend. I say pretty much because Prairie View (174/52) is visiting Alabama State (169/48) – 57.3% to win – and Southern (123/23) will travel to play Grambling St (136/29) – 55.3%. These are the final true regular season games. Remember the SWAC (along with the MEAC and the Ivy) does not participate in the FCS playoffs. As a reminder 24 teams make the playoffs. The top 8 are seeded and get a first round bye. The other 16 are matched up as best as possible via geography and if there is a logical plan for who has home field advantage, I haven’t figured it out. Here are the initial games this weekend.
| Away | Home | Winner | Pct to Win |
| Holy Cross (155/40) | Monmouth (85/4) | Monmouth | 73.0% |
| Central Conn (68/2) | Albany (128/26) | Central Conn | 57.3% |
| Furman (118/19) | Austin Peay 113/15) | Austin Peay | 60.5% |
| Kennesaw St (97/10) | Wofford (94/8) | Wofford | 54.3% |
| Illinois St (135/28) | SE Missouri (125/24) | SE Missouri | 60.6% |
| San Diego (152/37) | N Iowa (116/17) | N Iowa | 63.7% |
| North Dakota (188/63) | Nicholls St (153/38) | Nicholls St | 66.0% |
| Villanova (114/16) | SELA (180/56) | Villanova | 55.9% |
First I want to look at the 3 remaining FBS undefeated teams. It should be no surprise that in this morning’s rankings they had the top 3 spots. Here’s what each of them is facing in Rivalry Week. It looks like all three will win, but, Ohio State playing a better team has the toughest game, especially with it being on the road. Clemson will continue it’s winning streak and take it to 27. So far this season, only one 90%+ underdog won – Georgia Tech over Miami – in 21 tries in the FBS. LSU having the lone home game here looks to be a near lock – so far only 3 out of 38 80%-90% underdogs have won. Even Ohio State playing in the Big House look fairly solid as the 60s% range have the favorite winning 71 out or 102 times (just under 70%). I would be surprised if any of them lost. We’ll relook at this next week to see how this table looks for their (and all) championship games. As far as #4 – the GCR has Alabama in that spot, but the committee will have a hard time with that one. If these 3 win out, it’s clearly the only open spot. Oregon’s loss probably took the Pac-12’s hopes with it. Utah will be a stretch to get in, even if they win out. If Georgia beats LSU, there are 2 SEC schools in. If Minnesota wins out and beats Ohio State, the Big 10 has 2 schools in. If both happens, run for the hills because the college football world may be ending. If the 3 stay undefeated the 4th team will come from the Big 12. Oklahoma and Baylor will have a play-in.
| Team | Opponent | Pct to Win |
| Clemson (1) | @South Carolina (73/70) | 92.4% |
| Ohio State (2) | @Michigan (18) | 61.0% |
| LSU (3) | Texas A&M (37) | 81.0% |
Speaking of predictive success or not so much, the GCR did great in the FBS picking 48 of 64 – 75% – of the winners. The 9 upsets were a bit of a was 4-5 straight up and 4-4 with a push against the spread. However, the FCS Rivalry Week was the pits. Just 31-22 – 58%. Will this happen in the FBS as well? How many times have we said the records go out the window when the rivalry is on. Overall a 67.5% correct rate, which isn’t too bad. Here are this week’s numbers and the year to date (755 games predicted, 504 correct so far). The weighted average shows I’m just above 1 game behind. For the FBS, I’m just under 9 ahead, the FCS 10 back. In the off-season, I’m going to see if I can figure out why there’s such a difference.
| Decile | FBS | FCS | Total | Expected Wins |
| 50.0-59.9% | 13-8 (.619) | 9-9 (.500) | 21-17 (.552) | 20.90 |
| 60.0-69.9% | 11-6 (.647) | 8-9 (.471) | 19-15 (.559) | 22.10 |
| 70.0-79.9% | 13-2 (.867) | 7-4 (.636) | 20-6 (.769) | 19.50 |
| 80.0-89.9% | 4-0 (1.000) | 5-0 (1.000) | 9-0 (1.000) | 7.65 |
| 90.0%+ | 7-0 (1.000) | 2-0 (1.000) | 9-0 (1.000) | 8.55 |
| Total | 48-16 (.750) | 31-22 (.585) | 79-38 (.675) | 78.70 |
| Decile | FBS | FCS | Total | Expected Wins |
| 50.0-59.9% | 65-58 (.528) | 83-68 (.550) | 148-126 (.540) | 150.7 |
| 60.0-69.9% | 71-31 (.696) | 70-44 (.614) | 141-75 (.653) | 140.4 |
| 70.0-79.9% | 64-16 (.800) | 50-24 (.676) | 114-40 (.740) | 115.5 |
| 80.0-89.9% | 35-3 (.921) | 27-4 (.871) | 62-7 (.898) | 58.7 |
| 90.0%+ | 20-1 (.952) | 19-2 (.905) | 39-3 (.929) | 39.9 |
| Total | 255-109 (.692) | 249-142 (.637) | 504-251 (.668) | 505.2 |
This time of year there are 3 things all teams and fans are thinking about: the big game (sometimes it’s the only hope in a crappy season), the conference championship (if one of lucky teams still in it), and the possibility (and prestige and extra practice) of a bowl game. In that regard, congrats to Charlotte, Florida Intl (with that big win over Miami), Buffalo, C. Michigan, California, Washington State, Arizona State, Kentucky, and Tennessee for booking trips in December. 17 teams lost their 7th and barring failing to have enough teams to qualify will miss out: South Florida, NC State, Syracuse, Duke, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Purdue, N Texas, UTSA, Ball State, Northern Illinois, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Jose State, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, and Coastal Carolina. Here’s a breakdown of where the conferences stand.
| Teams | Bowl Eligible | Eliminated | Open Teams | |
| AAC | 12 | 7 | 5 | |
| ACC | 14 | 8 | 4 | Boston College (60), North Carolina (66) |
| Big 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | TCU (146/114) |
| Big 10 | 14 | 8 | 4 | Michigan St (21), Nebraska (51) |
| C-USA | 14 | 8 | 6 | |
| Ind | 6 | 3 | 2 | Army (110/97) |
| MAC | 12 | 6 | 4 | Kent St (102/91), Ohio (57) |
| MWC | 12 | 7 | 5 | |
| Pac-12 | 12 | 7 | 3 | Oregon St (38), Colorado (76/73) |
| SEC | 14 | 8 | 4 | Missouri (46), Mississippi St (104/93) |
| Sun | 10 | 5 | 3 | Troy (108/96), ULM (141/109) |
| Total | 130 | 73 | 43 | 14 |
There are 14 schools who can make it with a win and 5 spots. Army actually has 2 games (they are playing 13): this week at Hawaii and in two weeks vs Navy. The thing is, bowl invitations usually go out right after (or sometimes before for smaller bowls) the championship games. The Army/Navy game is the next week. I don’t know if a bowl will be willing to hold out an invitation on the off chance Army beats Navy again this year. So, it’s kind of up to the Hawaii game. Here’s what each of the 14 is facing next week. Army is not expected to do well in Honolulu. 9 of the 14 are on the road and only 3 are GCR favored to win. That leaves 2 spots, but with 5 teams in the 40% range (FBS schools in that category win about 47% of the time)… One thing the GCR cannot do is take into account the animosity in this week. Nor can it take into consideration a team that may have lost the will to play because they are not bowl eligible. I love the fact that we are coming down to the wire.
| Team | Opponent | Pct to Win |
| Army (110/97) | @ Hawaii (55) | 27.4% |
| Boston College (60) | @ Pittsburgh (47) | 34.2% |
| Colorado (76/73) | @ Utah (13) | 17.5% |
| Kent St (102/91) | @E. Michigan (92/85) | 45.6% |
| Michigan St (21) | Maryland (145/113) | 93.5% |
| Mississippi St (104/93) | Mississippi (79/76) | 43.3% |
| Missouri (46) | @Arkansas (157/116) | 73.2% |
| Nebraska (51) | Iowa (11) | 40.4% |
| North Carolina (66) | @NC State (77/74) | 41.7% |
| Ohio (57) | @Akron (256/130) | 94.7% |
| Oregon St (38) | @Oregon (22) | 36.0% |
| TCU (146/114) | West Virginia (74/71) | 40.8% |
| Troy (108/96) | App State (20) | 31.4% |
| ULM (141/109) | @ULL (62) | 19.4% |
Well, that’s it for today. I hope you had as much fun reading this as I did researching and writing it. But, now it’s crash time. Thanks for sticking with me this far and let’s take it home. Thanks, G
